Will steel prices rise again before the New Year? Be wary of airbuilding without transactions
Judging from the market operation of yesterday, the spot market is basically stable. In addition to a small number of threads, wires and other varieties rising a small increase of 10-30 yuan, most varieties have returned to smoothness and no longer take the price as the main line. At present, the market has been further affected by the effect of the Spring Festival, and the exchange of transactions has weakened. Most of the merchants are mainly ending work. The fake departure from the city will increase further next week. The overall transaction performance is average. The market is more based on the changes in futures prices. Local Shandong and other places have followed the price of the market, but it is not ideal.
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Following some terminal replenishment last week, less in the middle and lower reaches this week. However, after the market is now locked in resource liquidity, market circulation resources are still limited. From the perspective of holiday production, steel mills have limited influence on supply, and market inventory may show a rapid growth trend. After the year, it is necessary to pay attention to the time for startup.
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The overall raw materials have not changed. Coking enterprises have entered the loss after two rounds of price cuts, and the production -limited production price moves are on the agenda. Recently, the US dollar index has fallen, the rhythm of the RMB appreciation is consistent with the changes in the prices of threads, and the re -entry of iron ore foreign investment has shown that the international environment of the capital market is conducive to strong price.
Judging from the rhythm since the steel market rebounded in November last year, there is indeed the market for the spot of steel to rise, which reflects the change in the price structure of “strong expectations and weak reality”. But since the end of December last year, with the rise in spot prices, the futures have entered a shock, which is relieved.
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From the current point of view, the spot price has further risen, reaching a phased high. If you can continue to go up, you are expected to open up the uplink space and increase a height before the holiday. However, it is also necessary to consider the impact of regulatory policies and the impact of exchange rates and Spring Festival factors. At present, the spot lacks effective guidelines, and the significant rise and fall conditions are not sufficient. If there is no transaction, the price is of little significance.
Post time: Jan-11-2023