Why is the steel market lacking in confidence? Limited downside?
Today, the spot prices in the steel market are mixed, and futures steel prices continue to decline slightly. In terms of varieties, hot-rolled, medium plate, and cold-rolled plates are mostly stable, and a few markets have fallen by 10-20 yuan. The overall transaction is average, and the market sentiment is weak.
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From a fundamental point of view, the first round of lifting and lowering of coke has basically landed. As the profits of finished products are further suppressed, and the gross profit of long-process billets enters a loss, the possibility of a second round of coke lifting and lowering in September cannot be ruled out.
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With the intensified production reduction of steel mills in September (steel mills in some areas have a decline in the production of long and short process building materials), it is not ruled out that the production of molten iron will decline in September, which will usher in a certain negative impact on raw materials, and it is easy to have a negative impact on finished products in stages. However, whether a product is good or bad depends on the shrinkage of supply and the increase in demand. From all indications, the downside is not very large.
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At present, the reason why the market is difficult to improve is mainly due to insufficient demand and insufficient confidence. Insufficient demand is more prominent in the construction industry, while supply pressure is more prominent in sheet metal. The lack of confidence is affected by the effects of policy stimulus, the market operating environment, the contradiction between supply and demand of steel, and the room for price fluctuations. It is about to enter September. If both demand and supply improve, the current weak market will not have much room to fall.
Post time: Aug-30-2023