Which side is the steel price scale tilting towards?
Today’s steel market weakened, and steel prices fell slightly. However, the overall transaction is still biased, merchants report that there is no demand, and the market sentiment is weak.
Steel prices continue to fluctuate today, failing to break through upwards, and failing to make new lows downwards. Still in the midst of shock consolidation after the deep drop, the long-short game on the disk is stronger than the spot. At present, under the situation of weak supply and demand, the market is more sensitive to the resumption of production of some local steel mills. The main reason is that profits have been restored to a certain extent.
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The core driving force for steel mills to reduce production is profit. When there is profit, organize production as soon as possible, and then consider reducing costs and increasing efficiency when there is no profit. In the end, they have to cut production. From an enterprise’s point of view, this is no problem. But from an industry perspective, the imbalance between supply and demand is not conducive to the long-term operation of market prices. What about after rebirth? Still facing another loss situation.
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The current favorable conditions for steel mills are seeing round after round of coal coke price drops, but there are not many favorable conditions for the market. Further down, the “negative feedback” space for raw materials is limited.
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From the current point of view, as some steel mills resume production, the market’s expectations for production reduction have dropped again. In fact, even if there is an official suppression of the reduction policy, the output of crude steel in the whole year will not be higher than that of last year, and there will be a long time to adjust later. This does not require that the output be reduced immediately in May, which is equivalent to a certain To a certain extent, the regulatory function of the market itself needs to play a role. On the other hand, it is the time and space for the cost to bottom out, and there is still room for it to go down. Based on the above factors, the strength of the steel price rebound is restricted, short-term prices are still dominated by shocks, and there is still a slight decline in inventory pressure.
Post time: May-12-2023