Weak reality and strong expectations hinder the confidence of the steel market. When will the market get better?

Today’s market changes have increased the difficulty of operation. On the one hand, the market has rebounded during the decline, and on the other hand, the market has swayed back and forth between weak reality and strong expectations, which has hindered market confidence. It can be seen that the real market is getting better. time.
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1. The influencing factors of the steel market are as follows
1. Global manufacturing downturn drags down economic recovery
The overall data performance in July is still poor and uneven. Most of the manufacturing PMIs of various countries continue to stay below the 50 line of prosperity and decline. The recovery of the global manufacturing industry is slow and difficult, far below the expectations at the beginning of the year.
2. In July, China’s steel bar output was 20.151 million tons, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in July 2023, China’s steel bar output was 20.151 million tons, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year; the cumulative output from January to July was 137.242 million tons, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year
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3. China’s excavator output fell by 20.3% from January to July, and the decline continued to expand
In July 2023, my country’s output of excavators was 13,237 units, a year-on-year decrease of 33.9%. From January to July 2023, the cumulative output of excavators in my country is 149,767 units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.3%, and the decline rate is 2.3 percentage points higher than that from January to June.
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The rise of billet futures is a little weak, and strong expectations are still gradually increasing. In the past two days, many downstream steel rolling companies have stopped production. The supply and demand of steel billets have been affected to a certain extent. With the recovery, the production reduction expected by the market has not yet occurred significantly, but it cannot be ruled out that with the gradual implementation of the policy, the price of iron ore may be under pressure, and it is expected that the ore price will fluctuate at a high level tomorrow; the output of molten iron in steel mills will remain high, and the demand for coke Purchasing is good, but the recent crude steel level control policy has been implemented one after another, some steel mills are expected to reduce production, traders are cautious in taking goods, and it is expected that coke will run temporarily tomorrow.

Recently, the level control of crude steel in the market has a tendency to be gradually implemented, which is beneficial to steel prices to a certain extent. If the subsequent production restrictions are continuously confirmed, there is still a possibility of a slight rebound. At present, the fundamentals of steel products have not changed much. The weak demand continues to suppress the price of steel products. Relatively positive is still driven by macro expectations. It is expected that steel prices will continue to rise steadily tomorrow, with a range of 10-30 yuan.
Recently, steel prices have fluctuated more frequently. It is recommended that traders pay more attention to the news of macro expectations and production restrictions.