Turning point? Is it time for steel prices to rise?

The pace of macroeconomic policy releases has slowed down, expectations for continued monetary easing have not diminished, coal supply has been weak and demand has been strong, and iron ore is still strong after being beaten. On the supply side, molten iron remains at a high level during the year, steel billet inventories have increased slightly, and market sentiment has been mixed. With the good news on the raw material side and the macro level helping to boost growth, and the contradiction of high molten iron production on the supply side, What can be expected regarding the future direction of steel prices?
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The US’s initial jobless claims data for the week of September remained stable at around 220,000 people. It can be seen that the current US employment data is still stable. Regarding this week’s interest rate decision, it is certain that there will be no interest rate increase. Although the U.S. CPI data has picked up and the inflation data has increased, it is still within the range of market expectations. The international macroeconomics continue to show loose characteristics, which is bullish for steel price trends.
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Hot metal is at a high level during the year, and the demand side has formed a core support for iron ore prices, driving the iron ore market to continue to be strong. Under the premise that the policy level intends to control the high price of iron ore, iron ore has not experienced a significant decline. Although the market speculation has declined, fundamental demand is still good, which supports the high operation of iron ore in the short term and is bullish for steel price trends.
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The supply side of coal is affected, and the release of output is restricted, while the demand side is stable and improving. Weak supply and strong demand promote the continuation of dual-focus bulls. The current trend of double focus has not changed, and it is expected to remain strong in the short term, supporting steel prices on the cost side and bullish steel price trends.

The rigorous safety inspections in coal mines are having a significant effect on the coal supply. As a result, there has been a decrease in coal production and an ongoing high demand, causing the prices of double-coke to continue rising. Capital fled from the iron ore futures market and speculation cooled down, but the strong demand for high-speed hot metal still kept iron ore prices at a high level. The combination of stronger raw materials and macroeconomic expectations of monetary easing has pushed steel prices up in shocks. It is expected that steel prices will rise steadily tomorrow, with a range of 10-30 yuan/ton.