The Fed’s interest rate hike is disturbed, and the steel market may decline slightly

At present, the situation facing my country’s economic development is still complex and severe. From an international perspective, the global epidemic continues to spread, the industrial chain and supply chain are not smooth, international energy is relatively tight, commodity prices are running high, and inflation in major developed economies is high. The downward pressure on the economy has increased, and with the rising risk of global stagflation, unstable and uncertain factors have increased significantly. For the domestic steel market, on the one hand, we have to face the risk of the upcoming Fed’s sharp interest rate hike expectations, and on the other hand, we also have to face the risk that the quality of the traditional “Golden Nine” may not be as good as expected.
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From the perspective of the supply side, due to the strong expectation that the terminal demand will warm up in the peak season, the enthusiasm of the steel mills to resume production has also increased significantly, and in order to cope with the double release of the demand for construction steel in the construction site and the demand for industrial steel before the end of the year, steel The factory will also maintain a certain amount of production capacity release, so that the supply side will show a situation of rising under pressure. From the demand side, due to the continuous consolidation and overweight of the policy of stabilizing growth, the release of the terminal market demand is gradually picking up, but it remains to be seen how the release intensity will be.
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From the perspective of cost, due to the relatively strong price of raw materials and fuels driven by the resumption of production of steel mills, the support on the short-term cost side is strong. In the short term, the domestic steel market will face a rebound under pressure on the supply side, the stocking demand will gradually expand, the terminal demand will gradually pick up, and the short-term cost support will be strong. It is expected that the domestic steel market will be under pressure this week (2022.9.19-9.23). A slight downward trend.
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