The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points, and the price of coke will be raised in the fourth round. Will steel prices rise sharply?

2022 has entered the last month, and domestic steel prices have shown a “off-season rebound” trend since November. The domestic macro news this week is relatively light, and the focus of the market is mainly on the overseas Fed’s interest rate hike. The U.S. inflation indicator CPI in November, which was just announced on the evening of December 13, fell more than expected, further increasing market expectations for the Fed’s 50 basis point rate hike this month. Affected by this positive effect, US stocks rose, oil prices climbed, and bulk stocks were boosted to a certain extent.
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Since the second half of 2022, the land purchase area of the top 100 domestic real estate companies and the area of new real estate construction have both dropped by more than 45%. From this point of view, steel consumption in the real estate industry will continue to maintain a low level in the first half of next year. This will also be an important factor affecting this year’s winter storage.
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At present, the social inventory of steel has been at a low level in recent years. That is to say, although the year is approaching, the steel inventory in the hands of steel traders is not much. According to common sense, steel traders should replenish their inventory and actively participate in winter storage. Why is steel Are traders not willing to stockpile this winter?
First, domestic steel prices have rebounded for more than a month, and the price is approaching the 4,000 yuan mark. Steel traders believe that there is not much room for profit in the steel market after the year; After the Spring Festival, the demand for steel products cannot be released in large quantities. Many steel traders said that whether they will keep stocks at the end of the year depends on the price policy of steel mills for winter storage.
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The 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed is almost certain, but the statement of Fed officials will attract more attention, especially after inflation peaks, how long will the Fed continue to raise interest rates? Will interest rate peaks continue to rise? The hawkish or dovish rhetoric of Federal Reserve officials will attract more attention, and will also determine the short-term price trend, which will increase steel price volatility to a certain extent. If the market interprets this more dovishly, it will further push up market expectations and boost commodities, which in turn will benefit steel prices.
On the whole, the current market has strong positive expectations for it. At the same time, under the current epidemic prevention and control policy adjustments, expectations for demand recovery after the two sessions next year are also constantly strengthening. Therefore, there is still a strong drive for disk prices. At the same time, from the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, although the pressure of falling demand in the off-season is still there, from the perspective of inventory performance, the contradiction is not prominent, and some regional market resources are limited, traders and steel mills have a strong willingness to raise prices, and steel prices are volatile It is difficult to rise and fall, and it is expected that there will be room for further exploration.