The dollar is soaring, crude oil is rebounding, and ferrous metals are falling and rising. What rhythm will the steel market play?

With the overnight rebound of US crude oil and the late rise of ferrous metals in the inner session, ferrous metals chased after the trend in early trading on the 23rd and continued to run in a volatile rebound.

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The current market is characterized by a lack of momentum to rise and insufficient conditions to fall. Therefore, the performance of the disk is not too contradictory to superimpose the fundamentals at the time when the main force moves positions and changes to the month, and there is no clear direction for long and short.

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Expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sharply in a row in September and the euro weakened, supporting the dollar index to rise sharply this week, close to the new high of 109 in the previous 20 years. At the same time, the international crude oil performance stopped falling and rebounded. WTI crude oil returned from a minimum of 86 US dollars to above 90 US dollars. In addition, European natural gas rose by 20%. The international energy is still in a high fever due to inflation and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This winter, the world may usher in a cold winter again, indicating that energy prices are still likely to rise, and energy inflation pressure is still there. Domestically, under the trend of stronger raw materials squeezing profits and reducing policies, it is unlikely that steel production will continue to rebound in the future. In this condition, the market continued to fall is also restrained. However, it is also necessary to see that the recovery of production has led to the accumulation of the factory warehouse for the first time in two months, and the terminal consumption of steel is insufficient, and there is still restraint pressure. Under the current circumstances, it is also prudent to trade ahead of schedule in the peak season of September.

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In the short term, the market is relatively stable, there is no continuous surge in the market, and the market mentality is relatively cautious. Today, although the price pair has risen in many places, the transaction performance is average. Steel mill profits continue to be suppressed by raw materials. However, in the case of low demand and limited supply increment, the short-term supply and demand contradiction is not big, and it is easily driven by external forces and market sentiment. It is necessary to pay attention to the influence of crude oil, non-ferrous metals and capital sentiment. In general, steel prices remain volatile.