Strong expectations in the off-season, the steel market may be in a dilemma

The market price fluctuations of major steel products tended to weaken. Compared with last week, the rising varieties slightly decreased, the flat varieties increased slightly, and the falling varieties increased slightly. Among them, 14 varieties rose, 4 less than last week; 16 varieties were flat, 3 more than last week; 13 varieties fell, 1 more than last week. The domestic iron and steel raw material market fluctuated and consolidated, the price of iron ore rose by 10-20 yuan, the price of coke remained stable, and the price of steel billet fell by 10 yuan.
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The current political and economic situation in the world is complicated. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates in July. The risk of global economic recession still exists. , The prudent monetary policy is precise and powerful, and the counter-cyclical adjustment is strengthened to promote the overall improvement of economic operation. In the second half of the year, we will intensify macro-policy regulation, focus on expanding effective demand, and strengthen the deployment of policy measures. The prudent financial coverage will stay particular and powerful, and there may be nevertheless enough coverage area to address surprising demanding situations and changes.
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In the short term, the domestic steel market will present a pattern of “overall improvement in economic operation, extension of real estate financing policies, boost in market confidence, and weak demand in the traditional off-season”. From the perspective of the supply side, due to the mutual game between the profit-seeking effect and the news of level control, the willingness to release the production capacity of steel mills in the short term is still strong, and the short-term supply side will show a strong release momentum.
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From the demand side, due to the alternating influence of high temperature and rainy weather, some areas have started the “cooking mode”, which will continue to significantly restrict the construction progress of outdoor projects. From the perspective of cost, the slight increase in iron ore prices, the steady decline in scrap steel prices, and the second round of coke price increases all make cost support maintain strong resilience. It is predicted that this week (2023.7.17-7.21) the domestic steel market will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate, and some regions and varieties may fluctuate slightly with the quality of transactions.