Steel prices start to fall again? Short pullback or continued decline?

Driven by the implementation of the macro policies of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank, local governments have accelerated bond issuance. In August, the issuance of local government bonds ushered in the peak of the year. The positive trend of macro policies remained unchanged. The real estate policy on the demand side was further relaxed, and the down payment ratio was lowered to reduce the stock. The first housing loan interest rate, superimposed on the real estate “Golden September and Silver October” traditional sales season, market expectations have increased, but the fundamentals of supply and demand have not improved significantly, and the market transaction volume is limited. How will the steel price trend in the later period?
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1. 30% of the sintering machines of most iron and steel enterprises in Tangshan City were shut down
At present, Tangshan is affected by environmental protection and production restrictions. The production of sintering machines is limited to reduce emissions and stop production, which affects the supply of some profiles. Positive steel prices are limited.
2. In the first eight months, the bond issuance of private real estate enterprises accounted for less than 4%
Although favorable macroeconomic policies have been promulgated recently, the central bank, the Ministry of Finance and other departments have actively implemented favorable policies, first-tier cities have implemented the policy of recognizing houses but not mortgages, reducing down payment ratios, stimulating residents to purchase houses and driving the release of demand in related industries, but the overall real estate market The operating pressure is still high, especially private enterprises have difficulty in financing, are not actively acquiring land, the start of new projects is at a low level, and the terminal demand is sluggish, which is negative for the price trend of steel products.
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3. The two departments continue to reduce taxes on coal replaced by filling mining
The two departments continue to reduce coal costs through policies, which is negative for coal prices in the medium and long term. In addition, the current hot metal production continues to maintain a high level, and iron ore prices are difficult to drop significantly, especially due to the impact of policies and seasonal demand recovery, the market demand for finished products The expectation is good, the output of steel mills continues to be at a high level, high supply suppresses the rebound of steel prices, and the trend of steel prices is negative.
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Recently, a number of favorable real estate policies have been intensively introduced. Many favorable policies have been released before the traditional peak season of consumption, which further stabilizes market expectations, promotes residents’ consumption, and promotes the release of rigid and improved housing demand. However, the supply of industrial steel products is at a high level. The demand is lower than expected, the contradiction between supply and demand has not changed fundamentally, the speculative demand of merchants is insufficient to follow up, and the market transaction has declined month-on-month. It is expected that the price of steel products will run steadily tomorrow, with a range of 10-30 yuan/ton.