Steel prices rebounded for 3 consecutive days! How much space is there above?

The ferrous metals have continuously launched a rebound offensive, and the rebar and steel coil have successfully achieved a slight rise for 3 days, driving the spot price to continue to rise.

Today’s rising momentum is not as good as yesterday, and the transaction is slightly worse than yesterday. The thread price in some areas fell along with the online price. At the same time, the strength of hot coil terminal replenishment has weakened.

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Internationally, economic activity has weakened in many parts of the world, from the United States to Europe, fueling fears that inflation and geopolitical conflicts will drag the world into recession. Under the circumstance that crude oil rose against the trend and the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations were frequently attacked, the external disturbance began to have a greater impact on the internal market. However, judging from the recent performance of international blast furnaces, the decline in China’s blast furnace output has just ended, and the global blast furnace output has rebounded again, which is why iron ore has always been stronger than carbon raw materials in the long run.

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In mid-August, the daily output of crude steel increased by 2.72% month-on-month; the daily production of pig iron increased by 3.84% month-on-month; the daily production of steel increased by 0.17% month-on-month. In the case of general demand performance, the inventory has already risen. In mid-August, the inventory of key iron and steel enterprises was 17.3292 million. tons, an increase of 278,900 tons, or 1.64%, month-on-month; an increase of 732,600 tons, or 4.41%, from the end of last month; is this a signal of accumulation? Or continue to rise later, need further observation. However, if the weather turns cooler and demand still does not improve significantly, the expectation of low inventory will be significantly weakened, and there will still be some constraints on prices.

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Although it has rebounded for 3 days this week, the magnitude is not large. The spot is weaker than the futures, and it is still 30-50 yuan lower than last Wednesday. Judging from the average price level in the past 10 years, the current price is at a neutral high level, the profit is low, and the basis is basically the same. At the same time, we must also pay attention to Powell’s speech on Friday, and the PMI next Wednesday. If it exceeds expectations, the ferrous metals may turn short. In the short term, there is still a possibility of a slight increase.