INTEGRITY

Restorative rebound, steel prices do not yet have the conditions for a sharp rise!

Today, the steel market generally rose slightly. With the recovery of pessimism in the market, futures and spot transactions and speculation have increased, terminal demand has also improved to a certain extent, and bottom-hunting resources have certain profits. However, although the overall turnover has improved compared with the previous day, the performance of many places is still average.
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At present, the rebound in the steel market is still a restorative rebound after a decline, which not only sees the resilience of the spot market, but also sees the rapid changes in the financial attributes of the disk. At present, the price of the steel market is the result of the joint action of macro and industrial factors. There is no fundamental change in the two different macro environments at home and abroad, but there is a certain marginal improvement. From the outside, interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States are still continuing, but bank risks are under control for the time being. The domestic central bank has released 600 billion RRR cuts to increase liquidity, and the direction of economic recovery has not changed. However, it can be seen from the industrial added value in the past two months that some downstream profits have fallen rapidly, especially in the manufacturing industry. The recovery is not as strong as expected, and it still takes time to cultivate.
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From the perspective of the industry, the speed of destocking has slowed down since late March, and demand has declined, but production has exceeded expectations. The periodic contradiction between supply and demand has magnified, putting pressure on prices. Under normal circumstances, the peak season begins in late March, and the demand will continue to heat up. However, in the past two weeks, the terminal demand for watch demand has slowed down after a round of inventory replenishment. Of course, price drops and weather factors such as rainy weather in the south have certain impacts. But on the whole, there is little change in the marginal demand in the peak season, and the terminal and sub-terminal steel trade maintains a good inventory structure. The key to short-term prices lies in demand expectations and the pressure of periodic imbalances that may be brought about by the increase in supply.
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Judging from the current situation, the spot market is positively improving, and steel mills and steel traders are making greater efforts to raise prices in combination with their own resources, which has a certain supporting effect on the stabilization of the spot market. From a short-term perspective, the continued rebound still faces certain pressure, and at the same time, we need to be alert to the uncertain impact of sudden overseas risks.


Post time: Mar-29-2023

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