Since the market bottomed out in stages in early March, steel prices have been rising for a week. During this period, the policies of the two sessions were successively introduced, which boosted the market to a certain extent. However, under the influence of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the market development exceeded expectations. Steel prices Although there has been a rise in varying degrees, the downstream transactions are obviously insufficient to follow up.
From the perspective of the goals of the two sessions, the import and export will be stabilized and improved, and the balance of payments will be basically balanced: the Ministry of Commerce has previously stated that the export form will be more severe in 2022. With the fiercer competition in the international market, it will become more difficult to stabilize exports.
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The main reason for the “out-of-control” price rise in this round is that the influence of geopolitical factors is expanding, that is to say, war interference has become the main factor affecting the recent rise in commodity prices; macroscopically, the geopolitical influence of Russia and Ukraine continues, and the market is also Continue to account for the impact of supply-side disturbances under Western sanctions on Russia’s trade; the supply-side is affected by the uncertainty of commodities from Russia, Ukraine, or Europe; the demand-side has declined when prices have risen too quickly, and transactions have weakened; but supply The end problem is difficult to solve in the short term, and there is still a fermentation mood, so downstream or passive procurement. The strong pull-up sentiment in the outer disk is also continuously transmitted to the domestic market.
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The return of previously hyped HRC orders to Southeast Asia and China is the main reason for this round of price rises. At the same time, the opportunity for arbitrage with roll gaps appears, providing a strong opportunity for the market to rise. Judging from the current market feedback, the wait-and-see mood is strong. In the later period, as the demand is less than expected, the commodity may usher in a wide decline in the market. The watershed still refers to mid-March, the end of the Two Sessions and the Winter Paralympics.
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