2021 is destined to be a year that will be recorded in the history of the steel industry and even the bulk commodity industry. Looking back at the domestic steel market for the whole year, it can be described as magnificent and turbulent. The first half of the year experienced the largest increase in history, and the second half of the year ushered in a historical decline.
Looking back at the steel market in November, by the end of the month, it still showed a sustained and sharp decline. The composite steel price index fell by 583 points, the price of thread and wire rod fell by 520 and 527 points, respectively, and the prices of plate, hot rolled and cold rolled steel respectively. It fell by 556, 625, and 705 points. During the period, the spot rebounded twice, and it rebounded for a few days in the second half of the year. However, the sudden outbreak of the epidemic and the early expectations of US interest rate hikes added new pressure, and the spot performance was weaker than expected. In the futures market, the 2201 thread price rebounded 509 points from the low point, and the 2205 thread price rebounded 523 points from the low point, which was more in line with expectations. The price of 62% of Australian iron ore fell by 12 US dollars, the composite coke price index fell by 1298 points, and the scrap steel fell by 406 points. From the perspective of futures, iron ore and coke prices have rebounded to a certain extent. 2201 iron ore prices rebounded by 119.5 or 23.5%, 2201 coke prices rebounded by 430 or 14%, and iron ore prices rebounded the most.
Looking forward to the steel market in December, it may enter the most intense multi-game stage in history, with existing real estate policy corrections, the logic between the possible increase in demand for physical workloads at the end of this year and the beginning of next year and the seasonal decrease in demand for construction materials Game; there is a logical game between resuming production after completing the production restriction task and restricting production after the task is not completed; there is a logical game between a large amount of resources required for spot delivery in December and very little spot, and there is also a huge speculation in 2201 futures. The game between short orders and the unwillingness of industry bulls to give up; the game of sharply discounting spot prices in futures, etc., long and short are intertwined, and steel prices fluctuate in the differentiation.