Is the direction of steel prices clear?

Judging from the steel market quotations, there is little change in pipes and other varieties. The overall transaction performance in the market is mediocre, it is difficult to increase the price and ship goods, and the willingness to reduce the price is not strong, and the wait-and-see mood is strong.
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For spot products, the disk fluctuations are more frequent. Judging from the recent trend, the futures market still maintains a rapid pace of change, and is still more sensitive to policies and market news than the spot market.
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As of now, the logic of market operation remains unchanged. It is still the contradiction between the expectation of the policy and the fragility of the fundamentals of reality, which makes the market swing left and right. Especially in the critical mid-year time window, next week will enter the second half of the year. In many fields such as policy expectations, macroeconomics, and real estate stabilization, the market still has great expectations. Especially after entering July, it is also a window period when policies are easy to be introduced. It is not ruled out that there will be policy combinations to continue to be introduced. In the past few days, with the release of data such as the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size, the economy has continued to maintain a slow recovery trend, but structural differences are also more obvious. The profits of the equipment manufacturing industry and the automobile industry have recovered rapidly, and the profits of the steel industry are still poor. The loss was 2.49 billion, and the loss from January to May was 2.1 billion. Although there were short-term profits in the middle months, it still reflected that the steel industry was still in a downturn cycle. If the industry continues to maintain a pattern of losses, the policy on iron ore will increase in the second half of the year, and it is necessary to pay close attention to policy trends in this regard.
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Of course, the market is not all positive. Over the past two days, interest rate hikes have become more and more serious. In addition to the hawks in the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank also expressed a strong willingness to raise interest rates. Most Fed members expect two or more rate hikes before the end of the year, stronger than previous expectations of two hikes in July and September. A series of actions such as the performance of recent US data and related stress tests may pave the way for interest rate hikes, which still have a certain negative impact on the market.
From the current point of view, the steel spot and futures trends in the past two days have been relatively entangled, and the price level is also at a key position where it can go up or down. Although the demand is relatively poor, due to the limited increase in inventory pressure, the market still has certain confidence in expectations. In addition, the overall performance of the market is still strong. If it cannot fall below the 3700 support level (thread) in the short term, if the policy increases , then for the market, the price is still likely to rise.