In August, the “good start” steel price rose by 100 yuan in one day

On August 1st, the steel market ushered in a “good start” market. Among them, the spot price of rebar rose by more than 100 yuan, returning to the top of the 4,200 yuan mark, which is the largest single-day increase since this round of rises in mid-July. Rebar futures prices also hit the 4,100-point mark today.
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After entering August, the hot and rainy weather will gradually weaken, and the impact on the construction of outdoor projects will also be reduced, which will drive the gradual recovery of steel demand. At the same time, the recently held regular meeting of the State Council has deployed policies and measures to continuously expand effective demand, and requires all localities to speed up the progress of projects with high quality and quantity, to ensure that construction sites are not shut down, related industrial chains and supply chains are uninterrupted, and more changes will be formed in the third quarter. Multiple physical workloads.
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In terms of output, the blast furnace operating rate continued to decline after the steel mills spontaneously cut production significantly in the early stage. Data show that on July 28, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel companies in the country was 75.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from last week and down 5.1% from the same period last year; , a cumulative decrease of 7.1 percentage points. This shows that steel production has been in a state of continued contraction since June.
But it is worth noting that at the end of July, with the sharp drop in raw material prices, the loss of domestic steel mills has been decreasing, and some steel mills have turned losses into profits. As a result, some steel mills resumed production at the end of July. However, from the current overall situation, even if profits recover, it is difficult for the output to rise rapidly, so there will be a certain increase in output but the overall pressure will not be too great.
With the increasing expectations of domestic steel mills to resume production, raw material prices will also rebound. In addition to coke prices, iron ore and scrap prices also rebounded slightly in late July. And there is still room for the price of raw materials to continue to rise in the later period, which will form a certain support for the price of steel.
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At present, under the background of phased supply and demand mismatch in the market, the rebound of futures is still continuing, which promotes the continuous rise of the spot price of steel and the increase of spot transactions, forming a trend of resonance of volume and price. During the week, some areas released news of environmental protection and production restrictions, but due to the unstable demand increment, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the steel price has the driving force to continue to rise in the later period, and the possibility of repeated price fluctuations cannot be ruled out.