How to reduce production? How will steel prices go?
Today’s steel market is now dominated by stability, and futures continue to fluctuate. The overall market has a strong wait-and-see mentality, speculative demand has increased but the volume is limited, mainly due to the lack of market conditions, and the overall transaction performance is average.
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At the beginning of August, in addition to a slight decline in the hot coil market among ferrous metals, iron ore, bifocals, and threads all achieved a small increase. And the heavy rain had an impact on transportation, the coke disk rose by nearly 4%, and the coking coal also rose by more than 3%. At present, the overall raw materials are still in a strong position, and the rising momentum has not passed, especially the fourth round of coke price increase, iron ore consolidation at a high level, and high cost has always been an important factor that cannot be ignored for steel products. The profit level of steel companies is directly related to the reduction of steel in the later period. Policy implementation effect.
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At present, the steel market is mainly oscillating under the combined effects of macro, policy, supply and demand, extreme weather, and capital. In recent days, steel prices have not hit new highs, and they have entered into consolidation to prepare for a new round of market prices. . However, macro factors are gradually weakening, and the macro-control policy depends on the extent to which it falls into reality. The proportion of the influence of the industry regulation policy and the supply and demand situation began to increase. At present, there are ups and downs around the reduction of steel production. Now that some steel mills have received the notice of production restriction, it is meaningless to continue to debate whether to reduce or not.
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From the current point of view, after the positive impact of the policy on market sentiment, there is no significant improvement at the macro level, and the iron and steel contradictions still have to return to the fundamentals. The fundamentals focus on the reduction of the supply side. At present, the market still has no clear signal whether to continue to go up or turn back down, and at the same time, there is no clear downward drive. The focus of the market is on steel reduction, and the core is the implementation method of reduction. In the past, the reduction has been made many times, but in the end the market did not believe it, thinking that it would be difficult to continue. If this reduction is strictly implemented, in the medium term it will help improve the relationship between supply and demand and restore the profits of steel mills.
Post time: Aug-02-2023