How long will the steel market shock last? How much space is there in the back?
The overall steel market fell slightly yesterday. If this round of price rise is a rebound after the oversold in the previous period, then the continuous introduction of favorable policies in the later period should increase the optimistic expectations of the market, which in turn pushed up the price to continue to rise. It is not difficult to see from the recent national measures that sustained and effective economic recovery is the main goal. The current focus is to organically unify the quality and quantity of economic development, shift the foothold of promoting development to improving quality and efficiency, and constantly stimulate the endogenous driving force of economic development.
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In addition, judging from the data, although the performance of the overall macro data is still not satisfactory, the narrowing of the decline in the data still reflects the continued economic recovery, especially this year, we must insist on making steady progress, so it is undoubtedly a continuous improvement for the market. Good news for the release. The more pessimistic the status quo, the more optimistic expectations will be triggered. It also fits well with the off-season background. We need to look at expectations, especially the logic of policy expectations.
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While expectations are more optimistic, the current situation is that futures are rising. Although the spot price actively followed up, the transaction volume growth was weak. It can be said that the price rise and volume fall are not exaggerated. The main factor affecting the current price trend is not the fundamentals of supply and demand, but the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand fundamentals will restrict the height of price increases. Unless new stimulus policies continue to be introduced, the impetus for continued price rises remains insufficient.
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At present, the long and short market news basically accounts for half. From a foreign perspective, the Fed’s interest rate hike, which has attracted much market attention, is likely to land in July; from a domestic perspective, the contradiction on the demand side has not been effectively resolved for the time being. The reason why the market is tired of shocks is mainly because the macro data in the first half of the year and the Politburo work and economic meeting set the tone for the second half of the year. The market needs to be patient.
Post time: Jul-06-2023