Forecast: The trend of steel prices next week has been determined!

Since the beginning of this week, the market has continued to weaken, but the correction range is within a reasonable range. There are big differences in the current market. One is that the impact of stimulus policies has weakened, and the other is that the hot and rainy weather continues to be strong, resulting in poor terminal demand. Based on this situation, how will the market go next week? Let’s look down…
Factors affecting the steel market are as follows
1. Powell pushes back on idea of ‘pausing’ rate hikes
“We never used the word ‘pause,’ all we did was agree at that meeting to keep rates on hold,” Powell said. He also said most policymakers expected two more rate hikes this year, Given that the economy is performing in line with expectations, this is an appropriate forecast.
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2.From February to May, my country’s auto exports increased by 92.8% year-on-year
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, my country exported 440,000 automobiles in May 2023, a year-on-year increase of 92.8%; from January to May, my country exported 1.93 million automobiles, an increase of 80% year-on-year.
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3. Coca-Cola ended its ten-game losing streak, and the first round of price increases was a difficult game
Domestic coke may rebound after falling for ten rounds in a row, and some coking enterprises in Shandong, Hebei and other places raised slightly by 50-60 yuan/ton. However, the current coke price increase has not yet been fully implemented and still depends on the acceptance of steel mills.

Raw material market
From a fundamental point of view, although there is still a certain expectation of replenishment in the downstream, the overall trading atmosphere is average. In addition, as the supply of steel billets continues to increase, social inventories may continue to increase. It is expected that steel billets will fall steadily next week; the current high level of molten iron production still supports the demand for iron ore. The market is still in a game between strong expectations and the reality of the off-season. It is expected that ore prices will fluctuate next week; the operating rate of steel mills will increase, and the demand for coke will increase. The shipment of coke companies is stable, and it is expected that coke will continue to rise next week.
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Domestic policies are still supporting, the market is in the off-season, and the policies are still optimistic. Current fundamentals are not expected to change much. Although the spot price fell slightly this week, compared with the increase since June, the correction range is within a reasonable range. It is still not inclined to fall sharply in the short term, and there is still a chance for a rebound in the later period. It is expected that steel prices will be weak first and then strong next week, with a range of 20-50 yuan.