Forecast: high cost and weak demand, the steel market may welcome a “good start”
The market prices of major steel products fluctuated and adjusted back. Compared with last week, the rising varieties increased significantly, the flat varieties decreased slightly, and the falling varieties decreased significantly.
In 2023, global economic growth is facing slowdown pressure, and China’s economy will gradually return to the normal growth track under the policy of stabilizing domestic demand to expand domestic demand. Driven by various policies and other factors, China’s economy is expected to strengthen against the trend in 2023 against the backdrop of global economic slowdown. Among them, stimulating domestic demand is considered to be the core task of stabilizing growth in 2023. Due to global inflation, many countries have successively raised interest rates, the global manufacturing index continues to slump, and there is a high probability that global economic growth will slow down. However, for the domestic steel downstream industry, infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment are expected to maintain growth, the downward trend of real estate investment is expected to slow down and stabilize, and the demand for construction steel may perform well; however, the manufacturing industry is facing downward pressure. Demand is facing a certain slowdown pressure; on the whole, there is a possibility of a slight decline in domestic steel industry market demand in 2023. At the same time, internal demand will gradually strengthen, while external demand will have the risk of weakening.
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In the short term, the domestic steel market has entered the “winter storage” market, and is still in the game of strong expectations, high costs and weak demand. From the perspective of the supply side, due to the relatively firm cost of raw materials, the profits of steel mills have also been gradually reduced. Cannibalization, thus restricting the release of production capacity, the supply side will show a downward trend of pressure.
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From the perspective of demand, some steel mills have introduced the price of “winter storage”, but it is generally higher than market expectations, and the market acceptance is limited. Therefore, traders are not active in winter storage, which restricts the release of winter storage demand.
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From the cost point of view, due to the strong fluctuation of iron ore prices and the relative firmness of coke prices, the pressure on steel mills to lose money has increased, and the price of coke has begun to increase and decrease. The game of steel coke has intensified, but the short-term cost support is still strong. The willingness of the factory to stand up for the price is also obvious. It is predicted that next week (2023.1.3-1.6) the domestic steel market will show a market that will fluctuate and become stronger.
Post time: Jan-02-2023