Billets rise and futures fall! Who does the market listen to?

Today’s steel price decline slowed down, some markets stabilized, some markets continued to fall slightly, but a few markets rebounded slightly. The overall transaction is mediocre, the willingness to stock up before the festival is not strong, the market confidence is poor, and merchants are mainly cautious.
(To learn more about the impact of specific steel products, such as crgo silicon steel, you can feel free to contact us)
Although the decline in the steel market slowed down today, it did not continue to fall sharply. However, the average spot price and the futures market have hit new lows within the month, which shows that the stable foundation of the market is not solid, and there is still a risk of continued decline. At present, the market is focusing on the production reduction of steel mills. The scale of production reduction is indeed expanding, but the effect of production reduction will not be as fast as the market expects. It does not mean that the price will rebound once production is reduced. It is also necessary to see clearly the logic, inertia and panic that has not subsided in the market decline. In addition, is there a fifth round of decline in coke? Will iron ore fall again? At present, there is no sign of complete stabilization of raw materials, or the foundation of stability is not firm, so it is hard to say that the cost of steel will no longer drop.
(If you want to know more about the industry news on crgo electrical steel, you can contact us at any time)
At present, the international situation is complex and changeable, the global economic recovery is slow, the domestic macro-economy has begun to stabilize, and the demand for steel has picked up, but there is still a certain gap compared with expectations. In the second quarter and the second half of the year, there are still relatively large uncertainties in the steel market, and it is expected that steel prices will generally show a weak and volatile trend.
From a macro point of view, the market has a certain atmosphere of speculation that the macro market will turn empty. The core is whether the economic work conference at the end of the month will adjust the “triple pressure” to “triple improvement”, which is related to monetary policy, fiscal policy, and policies to promote consumption and stabilize employment, which are the focus of the market. Overall, my country’s economic development got off to a good start in the first quarter. Specific to the characteristics of economic operation, it can be summed up in three sentences, that is, “expanding demand, recovering supply, and improving expectations”. Due to the low base in the second quarter, there is little pressure on stable growth, but it does not mean that macro drivers will weaken. On the contrary, in the harsh environment where the international situation has become more complicated and changeable, it is even more necessary to stabilize the domestic economic market and do a good job in the big cycle of domestic demand. There is no need to worry too much at the macro level, the contradiction is still in the fundamentals.
(If you want to get the price of specific steel products, such as crgo silicon steel oriented, you can contact us for quotation at any time)
From the current point of view, the stability of the market is not strong, the general trend is still on the bear side, and it is still in the process of constantly bottoming out. The so-called “bottom” has not yet come out, but the factors of production reduction and May Day holiday have slowed down the decline. Changed the tempo. All the important negative factors are still in play, and market confidence has not recovered under the downtrend. The trend has not changed, even if there is a small rebound, it is a normal phenomenon during the decline. In the market before May Day, the decline slowed down, or tended to be volatile.