At the beginning of the transition from low to peak season, the steel market faces the risk of decline

The market prices of major steel products fell after rising. Compared with last week, the number of rising varieties decreased slightly, the number of flat varieties decreased, and the number of falling varieties increased.
The domestic steel raw material market fluctuated and consolidated, with iron ore prices fluctuating slightly, coke prices remaining stable, scrap steel price fluctuations weakening, and steel billet prices rising first and then falling.
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Since the beginning of this year, in the face of the complex and severe international situation, the country has continued to increase macroeconomic policy support. For the steel market, as the effects of various policies continue to emerge, the domestic economy will maintain a stable and positive trend. At the same time, due to the arrival of the traditional construction peak season, downstream demand will also follow.
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In the short term, the domestic steel market will present a pattern of “the external environment is complex and severe, the domestic economy is stable and improving, various policies are being implemented at an accelerated pace, and downstream demand will follow.” From the supply side, due to the rebound of the steel market and the relative resilience of raw material prices, the willingness of steel mills to release production capacity has weakened in the short term, and the short-term supply side will show a slight decline.
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From the demand side, various policies are accelerating the implementation process. The off-peak season is still in the process of transition. The release of stocking demand is less than expected. The steel social warehouse is showing a trend of differentiation. At the same time, due to the weather in some areas, market transactions are obviously restricted. . From the cost side, iron ore prices have fluctuated significantly and coke prices have remained stable, making cost support still relatively resilient. It is predicted that the domestic steel market will fluctuate and weaken this week (2023.9.11-9.15).