As the market cools down, the steel market still needs to be treated rationally

On the 9th, the domestic steel market was generally stable, and local prices fluctuated slightly.
Judging from today’s market performance, the bullish sentiment has cooled down, merchants are unable to raise prices, and shipments are solid. The arrival of goods in some markets is still obvious, resulting in the accumulation of inventory too fast, such as North China, Northwest and other places, coupled with the rapid cooling in the North, the Northeast and Northwest lines may speed up the pace of the north and south. At present, the overall inventory increase is in line with the post-holiday rhythm, and the growth rate is also at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years, and the steel inventory is still significantly lower than the same period last year. At present, the demand is relatively slow, but the contradiction between supply and demand has not intensified.
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In terms of output, during the National Day period, the output of HRC increased faster than that of thread, and the thread was relatively moderate. The overall steel output is measured quarterly, and the third quarter is still lower than the second quarter, but the month-on-month and year-on-year increase in August. At present, in combination with the coming of autumn and winter, nearly 18 cities and counties in 13 provinces have carried out air pollution prevention and control work in autumn and winter. Some steel companies in Hebei Province are also discussing production restrictions during October 14-22. Control. At present, it is rumored in the market that the sintering of the lowest grade steel enterprises may limit production by 50%. In addition, in the event of polluted weather, the control may be advanced or postponed. After the huge loss of steel mills in July, the profit has improved since August, but it is still on the edge of small profit, and the profit of HRC has deteriorated again. If profits do not continue to improve, it cannot be ruled out that policy-based production restrictions will be increased in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the incremental space is still limited when the output is under strict control.
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Judging from the performance of the spot market in the past two days, there has been no sharp rise. The market is generally stable and rising. The price focus has risen to a certain extent compared with before the festival, but the magnitude is not large, and the fluctuation of steel prices is relatively flat. However, the bullish sentiment has increased, and there is less stocking after the holiday, indicating that the market is still rational and cautious.
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In general, there may be a short-term rise, but there is still a risk of a fall in subsequent demand that cannot keep up. It is still prudent as well, bullish not chasing.